The recession is over, and people want to live in Londonderry.
Londonderry GIS Director and Comprehensive Planner John Vogl was the guest of the Londonderry School Board in its June 21 meeting, and he brought a glimpse of what the town’s – and schools’ – future may look like. For the School Board, it means the end of a period of declining enrollment, and up to 128 new students in 2018-19.
Vogl said the Planning Department has been working on projected school enrollment, based upon the new developments going up in Londonderry.
“It is not hard to find someone who just bought a house in Londonderry, or new construction,” Vogl said.
Back to school
He cited the following construction projects and developments and projected new students for 2016-17:
- Mill Pond, in the northeast corner of the town, projected to bring 13 elementary and eight middle-high school students;
- Lorden Commons, also in the northeast area, and projected to bring seven elementary and four middle-high schoolers;
- Wallace Farm, in the North School area, 20 elementary and eight middle-high schoolers;
- School House Square, Matthew Thornton area, five elementary, three middle-high schoolers;
- Pinkerton Hills, Matthew Thornton, two elementary, one middle-high school; and
- Wayland Drive, Matthew Thornton, two elementary, one middle-high school.
In 2017-18 the anticipated new students are as follows:
- Mill Pond, eight elementary, five middle-high;
- Lorden Commons, six elementary, three  middle-high;
- Wallace Farm, 20 elementary, eight middle-high;
- School House Square, six elementary, three middle-high;
- Pinkerton Hills, two elementary, one middle-high
- Wayland Drive, one elementary, one middle-high; and
- Kestrel Estates, three elementary, two middle-high.
While some of the developments will be built-out in three years, others will be coming on-line. For 2018-19 the estimated new students are:
- Albird Estates, three elementary, two middle-high;
- Lorden Commons, six elementary, three middle-high;
- Wallace Farm, 20 elementary, eight middle-high;
- Londonderry Townhomes, nine elementary, three middle-high;
- Residences at MacGregor Cut, 20 elementary, eight middle-high; and
- Woodmont Commons, 13 elementary, five middle-high.
Vogl summed it up: the estimated new students for 2016-17 are 91, 2017-18, 96, and 2018-19, 128. These are across all grade levels, he said.
“These are big numbers,” Vogl acknowledged. “But there are even bigger numbers on the non-residential side that will mitigate them.” Senior housing projects are going in that will not put children in school, and industry is healthy, he said.
Dealing with it
But the school district still has to deal with it.
“How do you come up with the numbers per unit?” board member Jen Ganem asked Vogl.
Vogl said he uses impact fee analysis and a 2012 study by Bruce Mayberry. “We matched every student with a housing type and multiplied,” he said.
The formula is not 1 student per bedroom, Vogl said, but 0.394 students per unit. The age of families moving to Londonderry is increasing, and their family sizes are declining, he noted.
“Is 0.394 the standard for the industry?” member Steve Young asked.
“It is for Londonderry,” Vogl responded.
Young wondered if the numbers for the projected increase were skewed. “Many of us are empty-nesters,” he said. “But we stay on because of the price of housing.”
The tax rate may be “Dampened” by an influx of students, but, Young said, “We do have to service these children. We may have to look at adding teachers.”
He asked Vogl if there was any way to forecast an increase in Special Education students, which are both “One of the most expensive and one of the most volatile” of the student population. But Vogl deferred the question to Superintendent Nate Greenberg. “You won’t find that in the land use planning field,” he said.
Young’s point about empty-nesters staying on in their homes is well-taken, Vogl said, though he added that the projected rise in new students is based on new construction.
Board Chair Nancy Hendricks wondered about the cost impact of 91 new students in the district, and Greenberg said, “Numbers can be deceiving.” In a class with 18 students, for example, the per-pupil cost is an average of $14,000. But it’s economy of scale, he added: “If you add one new student who just needs a textbook, the per pupil cost goes down.”
The key for board and administration, Greenberg said, is who’s moving in and where they’re moving to. “Two years ago, there was a significant in-migration to the southern end of town,” he reminded the board. “They were all second-graders, and we had to ask the board for an additional teacher. If they were spread out across the grades, we wouldn’t have.”
Greenberg said they will be better able to plan this fall, after they receive and study a Facilities Report. Londonderry has several options, he said, including redistricting, purchasing land for a new school or obtaining “First refusal,” and adding on to buildings.
He noted that from 2006 to 2016, the district saw a decline in enrollment. But at the end of 2015-16, they had only one student less than last year. “The numbers,” he said, “are on the rise.”
Greenberg said that during the decline, the district had more space and was able to bring several Special Education programs back home and operate them in-district. “That has saved us millions,” he said.
Hendricks thanked Vogl for coming. “We wanted to get a handle on this,” she said. “We have to plan our budget 18 months in advance.” The district recently saw a Special Ed increase of a half million dollars, Hendricks said. “We need to be prepared.”
But, she said, “We feel like we have to prepare for a tidal wave.”