John Vogl, Geographic Information System Manager and Comprehensive Planner for Londonderry, has provided the Planning Board with his estimates of new school enrollments from approved or anticipated developments for the 2016, 2017, and 2018 school years.
The known approved or pending projects in his study include: Mill Pond, Lorden Common, Wallace Farms, Townhouses at Whittemore Place, School House Square, Woodmont Commons, Kestrel Estates, Pinkerton Hills, MacGregor Cut, Albird Estates, Wayland Drive and additional scattered sites.
Looking at 2016, Vogl told the Planning Board at its Wednesday, Aug. 10 meeting that he estimates new enrollment for Londonderry’s middle and elementary schools from the above projects would produce 60 new students, with 32 new students for the high school. He said 6 percent of the estimated new school population would impact the South School area, 73 percent would impact the North School area, and 18 percent would impact the Matthew Thornton area. Moose Hill School’s afternoon kindergarten is expected to see an 86 percent increase; the morning kindergarten would have a 14 percent increase, Vogl said.
For the 2017 school year, he estimates the South School area would see an increase of 62 elementary students and 33 high school students, for a total of 13 percent of the increased student population. The North area would have 62 percent of the new students and the Matthew Thornton area 25 percent. Moose Hill afternoon kindergarten would see an 82 percent increase, and Moose Hill morning kindergarten would receive 18 percent.
For the 2018 school year he estimates a total impact of 128 new students, with 88 for elementary and middle school and 40 for high school. That translates to a 9 percent impact on the South School area, 39 percent on the North School area and 52 percent on the Matthew Thornton area. Moose Hill afternoon kindergarten would be hit with an estimated 74 percent while Moose Hill morning kindergarten would receive 26 percent.
The estimates, he said, show that the North district will be experiencing the brunt of the increased school population, followed closely by Matthew Thornton in year three. The South School area would not face new development projects and would deal only with move in and move out student population in existing homes.
Vogl pointed out that after a number of years with no growth in Londonderry, the town is now experiencing a period where growth is back with a fury, thanks to new construction. He said North School is getting very close to capacity, while the other elementary schools are tight, but growth is available at the high school.
Vogl noted, however, that the expected enrollment growth is not just a North School problem but rather a town-wide problem requiring a town-wide solution.
The issue of possibly redistricting was also discussed by the board. South School can grow, with a pad already in place for expansion, as previously reported by the Londonderry Times, but there is no room for expansion at North School.
Vogl worked with School Superintendent Nathan Greenberg on the estimates, and the Planning Board members expressed their appreciation for his coming up with the numbers and information noting how future developments will impact the school district, something the board needs when deliberating on proposals.